AmakuruMU MAHANGAPOLITIKI

Ingaruka z’intambara y’u Burusiya na Ukraine ikomeje guteza izamuka ry’Ibiciro by’ibiribwa n’ibikomoka kuri peteroli

U Burusiya na Ukraine bimaze igihe bifatwa nk’ikigega cy’isi mu biribwa n’ibijyanye n’ingufu zishingiye ku bikomoka kuri peteroli.

Raporo yasohotse ku wa 16 Werurwe yiswe “The Impact on trade and development of the war in Ukraine – UNCTAD rapid assessment”, igaragaza ko u Burusiya na Ukraine byihariye 53 ku ijana by’ubucuruzi bw’isi yose mu mavuta y’ibihwagari n’imbuto zabyo, na 27 ku ijana by’ubucuruzi bw’ingano ku isi.

Imibare kandi igaragaza ko mu bijyanye n’ingufu, u Burusiya buza ku mwanya wa kabiri ku isi mu gucuruza peteroli, kuko bugurisha utugunguru miliyoni 5 ku munsi.

U Burusiya kandi buri mu bihugu byohereza mu mahanga inyongeramusaruro nyinshi, hamwe n’ibindi binyabutabire birimo ibyuma n’ibindi.

Byitezwe ko intambara hagati y’u Burusiya na Ukraine izasiga ingaruka zirimo izamuka ryihuse ry’ibiciro by’ibintu bituruka muri ibyo bice.

Raporo ya UNCTAD igaragaza ko nko mu 2018–2020 Afurika yatumije mu Burusiya ingano zifite agaciro ka miliyari $3.7 (32% by’ingano zose Afurika yatumije mu mahanga) n’izifite agaciro ka miliyari $1.4 muri Ukraine (12% by’ingano zose).

Urebye nk’ibihugu 25 muri Afurika birimo n’ibikennye, byatumije muri biriya bihugu hejuru ya kimwe cya gatatu cy’ingano zose bikenera, mu gihe ibihugu 15 byo byatumijeyo hejuru ya kimwe cya kabiri cy’ingano zose byavanye hanze.

Ibyo byumvikanisha ko ibura ry’ingano rishobora kuba vuba, rikazagira ingaruka ku bihugu mu buryo butandukanye.

Byongeye, ngo hari mahirwe make yo kuziba icyo cyuho binyuze mu bucuruzi hagati y’ibihugu bya Afurika, kubera ko umusaruro w’ingano uri hasi ndetse ibice bimwe by’uyu mugabane ntibifite ibikorwa remezo bihagije mu bwikorezi n’ubuhunikiro.

Iyi raporo igaragaza ko nk’u Rwanda, ingano rukoresha hafi ya zose zituruka mu Burusiya, nke cyane ni zo ziva muri Ukraine nkuko Igihe kibitangaza dukesha iyi nkuru.

Minisitiri w’Intebe Dr Edouard Ngirente aheruka kuvuga ko 64% by’ingano u Rwanda rukoresha ziva mu Burusiya, zikarangurwa muri Tanzania. Ikindi u Rwanda rutumizayo cyane ni inyongeramusaruro.

Yakomeje ati “Icyo twakoze rero ni uko turimo kureba ahandi twazivana, ari nako tureba uburyo twavanga ingano n’ibindi biboneka hano mu Rwanda nk’ibinyabijumba mu gukora umugati n’ibindi byakorwaga 100% mu ngano.”

Ni ibintu bishoboka mu gukora imigati, amandazi na capati, ariko bishobora kugorana nko mu kwenga inzoga zitandukanye.

Dr Ngirente yavuze ko ingaruka z’ibikomoka kuri peteroli zo zizagaragara nibura mu mezi abiri, kuko ari cyo gihe bifata ngo peteroli yatumijwe hanze igere mu Rwanda.

Leta igenda yigomwa amwe mu mahoro ku bikomoka kuri peteroli, bityo izamuka ryagombaga kuba rikagabanyukaho 50%. Bikorwa no ku nyongeramusaruro.

Bijyanye n’ibibazo biri mu bihugu nk’ibishingiye ku mihindagurikire y’ibihe, imbogamizi mu kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga n’ibindi, birashoboka cyane ko mu bice bimwe hazabamo ibibazo byo kutihaza mu biribwa.

Ibyo ngo bizajyana ahanini n’uguhenda kw’inyongeramusaruro n’ikiguzi cy’ibijyanye n’ingufu kizazamuka cyane, bigire ingaruka ku gihembwe gitaha cy’ihinga.

Raporo ikomeza iti “Izamuka riruseho rizagora Afurika ni uko igiciro cy’ibinyabutabire bya urée na phosphate – ibintu bibiri by’ingenzi mu ifumbire mvaruganda – byazamutseho 30% na 4% uko bikurikirana, kugeza mu mpera za 2021.”

UNCTAD ivuga ko nubwo ibihano byafatiwe u Burusiya bitabuza ko ibicuruzwa bimwe byoherezwa mu mahanga, hari impungenge ko bizagabanyuka cyane.

U Burusiya na Ukraine biherereye ahantu heza cyane, hagati ya Aziya n’u Burayi.

Nyamara muri iki gihe ikirere cy’u Burusiya cyafunzwe ku bihugu 36, ndetse abakora ubwikorezi bw’imizigo barimo kugirana inama zo kudakoresha inzira z’ubutaka zica muri ibi bihugu.

Ni ibintu bizamura igiciro cy’ubwikorezi bw’indege no ku butaka, mu gihe iby’ubwikorezi bwo mu mazi bimaze iminsi biri hejuru.

Raporo ivuga ko nibura mu 2021, kontineri miliyoni 1.5 zavanywe mu Bushinwa zijyanwa mu Burayi muri gari ya moshi.

Bivuze ko mu gihe izo kontineri zaba zongerewe mu zinyuzwa mu nyanja hagati y’u Burayi na Aziya, ubwo bwikorezi bwari butorohewe bwakwiyongeraho imizigo hagati ya 5 na 8 ku ijana, ibiciro by’ubwikorezi bikarushaho kuzamuka.

Mu 2021, UNCTAD yatangaje ko izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ubwikorezi mu gihe cy’icyorezo ya COVID-19 ryazamuye ibiciro ku masoko ho 1.5%.

Intambara yo muri Ukraine byitezwe ko izarushaho kuzamura ibiciro by’ubwikorezi, mu minsi ishize byari byazamutseho 400 ku ijana.

Imibare ya UNCTAD igaragaza ko nibura 5% by’ibicuruzwa ibihugu bikennye bitumiza mu mahanga, bigizwe n’ibicuruzwa ibiciro byabyo bigiye gutumbagira ugereranyije na 1% ku bihugu bikize.

Ni ibintu ngo bishobora gutuma abantu batangira gukoresha ingufu zangiza ibidukikije, bigasubiza inyuma intambwe zari zimaze guterwa mu myaka 5–10 ishize.

Bimaze kugaragara ko ibibazo bya politiki bigira ingaruka zikomeye mu kuzamura ibiciro by’ibiribwa, nk’uko byagenze mu myigaragambyo ishingiye ku biribwa yabaye muri 2007-2008 n’iyabaye mu barabu (Arab Spring) mu 2011.

Yanditswe na Dushimimana Elias

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